Thursday, March 10, 2016

FROM CHAOS TO TODAY


THE ABSURD TIMES



Illustration: Pre-Enlightenment vision of the Cosmos – Shared today.
Illustration: This is a fundamentalist vision of how the cosmos is arranged.  The concepts of "down in Hell," and "up in Heaven" are quite clear.  Hanging from a chain or string from Heaven is the universe and if you are really good, you get to go up.  From there you are either let in, or sent down to "burn in Hell."  This is not made up.  Most Evangelicals or "Born again Xtians" believe this, but would be hard put to draw it.  That Universe was made 6,000 years ago after Lucifer and 1/3 of Heaven's Angels revolted, staged a revolution, and were sent down to a newly created Hell.  The date of this even is not clear.  These are the people voting for Ted Cruz and Donald Trump today.



FROM CHAOS TO TODAY

BY

TSAR DONIC



            I honestly could not think of anything else as a title, so there it is. 



            Some people get the idea that important issues have not been mentioned lately on American television because of the Republican Debates.  Actually, Racism, Poverty, Freedom of the Press, Equal Rights for Women, Right to Choose, Sexual Identity, the need for true investigative reporting, and corporate greed were all mentioned live on television in the past few weeks, only it happened to be at the Oscars Awards, not during a Republican Debate.



            NEWS FLASH: NANCY REAGAN IS DEAD!  She is most remembered for her remark that the best way to avoid addiction is to "Just say NO."  It may have been good advice as NO = Nitrous Oxide, or laughing gas.



            To understand the voting so far in the American primaries, the "Super Tuesday," and most recent states holding elections, come from an area with a population that overwhelmingly believes that the universe is as depicted above.  Remaining states will be much more sane and reasonable and this should be remembered when the delegate count is totaled.  In addition, Sanders is much more popular with all American voters when compared to Trump than Hillary.  Most of Hillary's support with African-American voters is due to their proximity to the bible belt racists on the other side.  Anyway, that is enough of this silly season report.



            Israel is taking great advantage of this interlude to both expand and increase its pressure of both the Palestinian people and our election.  Recently, there has been attempts to compare Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler because he asked for a show of support at a rally and that was just like Hitter at the Holocaust.  Raising ones hand in support is a far cry from the Nazi salute, but Trump is increasingly coming under attack by Zionist activists because he said that we should be more "neutral" in our relations between Israel and the Palestinians. 



It should be clear that Mr. Trump's campaign is operated much like P. T. Barnum's publicity practices and the theme is subject to change at any time depending on how popular it sounds.  Most of those supporting him have no real idea that he is one of the 1%.  They are unhappy with the political situation as it stands today and that is about it. 



If the Nazi salute is an issue we should take seriously, Mr. Foxman, what about this Nazi salute?:








            A 50 year old mother was killed in Palestine as a "Terrorist." She had no weapon.  Her offense, it seems, was giving birth.  This is arguably a bad thing, but it is hardly akin to the holocaust. 



            90% of the Ukrainian soldiers that were in Crimea prior to its independence have chosen to stay there. The other 10% returned to Ukraine.  This is hardly a mass defection or expression of discontent.



At any rate, here is some more on foreign policy and the election:


In a recent article, historian and retired Colonel Andrew Bacevich raised six questions that have been ignored in the 2016 presidential race. Most notably, he says, "Nearly 15 years after this 'war' was launched by George W. Bush, why hasn't 'the most powerful military in the world,' 'the finest fighting force in the history of the world' won it? Why isn't victory anywhere in sight?" Bacevich joins us from Boston to talk about the race and these missing questions. His new book, "America's War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History," will be published next month. He is professor emeritus of international relations and history at Boston University.




TRANSCRIPT


This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: To talk more about the presidential race and to look at some of the questions not being raised at the debates, we're joined by Andrew Bacevich, a retired colonel and Vietnam War veteran. His new book, America's War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History, will be published next month. He is professor emeritus of international relations and history at Boston University, also author of several other books, including Washington Rules: America's Path to Permanent War. His son was killed in action in Iraq in 2007.

AMY GOODMAN: Andrew Bacevich's most recent article is headlined "The Six Questions Missing from the 2016 Election Debates." He's joining us now from Boston.

Andrew Bacevich, welcome back to Democracy Now! So what is missing from these debates?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, from my point of view, the big thing that's missing is a willingness to take on board the progress, or lack thereof, of U.S. military involvement in the Islamic world. Certainly, there is attention in the campaign given to the ISIS campaign, the campaign against ISIS. But let us note that even as theISIS campaign unfolds, we're still involved in Afghanistan. You noted in your news roundup, we've just had a major bombing incident in Somalia, followed by a special operations raid. Last week in The New York Times, there was an article discussing the plans within the Obama administration perhaps to launch a major air campaign in Libya.

And it seems to me to be time for the American people, or for those aspiring to be the next commander-in-chief, to take stock of this military involvement in the region, which has been going on for decades now, and to ask, "How are we doing? Are we winning? What are the prospects?" And to pose those questions in a serious way would, I think, contribute to a conclusion that the militarization of U.S. policy in that part of the world has been utterly counterproductive and is making things worse, not better.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: Andrew Bacevich, a lot of people in the U.S. would disagree with the claim that ISIS is not the principal threat facing Americans today. So could you explain why you think that's not the case?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, I think ISIS is a—poses an existential threat to the countries in the region. It threatens the state structure that was created in the aftermath of World War I. And therefore, from that point of view, the powers in the region, whether we're talking about Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iraq and others, they have a profound interest in bringing about the destruction of ISIS. But by any realistic measure, ISIS poses only a modest threat to the United States of America. It doesn't have an air force. It doesn't have a navy. It consists of a relatively small number of fierce fighters, not particularly well armed. And the notion that ISISsomehow threatens us, I think, is really absurd.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: Do you think that there's any evidence to suggest that the next administration, whether it's Republican or Democrat, will be less interventionist in the Muslim world?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, if we look at the remaining Republican candidates, they are all clearly different flavors, but they're all militarists. I would certainly evaluate Secretary Clinton as an exceedingly hawkish Democrat. Her principal achievement, if you want to call it that, as secretary of state was in pushing the intervention in Libya, which has produced catastrophic consequences.

Senator Sanders, however, is largely—it seems to me, hasn't laid out his position. One might anticipate that given his general left-leaning view of the world, that he might be somewhat less inclined to rely on U.S. military power, might be more willing to consider alternatives to military power, but he has not yet, at least to my knowledge, really spelled out in detail where he stands on these matters. And frankly, I wish he would. I think he—I think he needs to, in order to move his candidacy beyond the economic and social justice themes that have been the core of his campaign thus far.

AMY GOODMAN: Well, you know, last night at the Univision debate, we just played that clip of Bernie Sanders saying, overall, when he was talking about Latin America, everyone from Nicaragua to Chile and the ouster of the democratically elected leader Salvador Allende, said he was opposed to, you know, U.S. interventions for regime change. And then, this was Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders at the Democratic presidential debate in [New Hampshire] accusing former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of being, quote, "too much into that regime change."

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS: There's some difference of opinion with Secretary Clinton on this. Our differences are fairly deep on this issue. We disagreed on the war in Iraq. We both listened to the information from Bush and Cheney. I voted against the war.

But I think—and I say this with due respect—that I worry too much that Secretary Clinton is too much into regime change and a little bit too aggressive without knowing what the unintended consequences might be. Yes, we could get rid of Saddam Hussein, but that destabilized the entire region. Yes, we could get rid of Gaddafi, a terrible dictator, but that created a vacuum for ISIS. Yes, we could get rid of Assad tomorrow, but that would create another political vacuum that would benefit ISIS. So I think, yeah, regime change is easy, getting rid of dictators is easy. But before you do that, you've got to think about what happens the day after.

HILLARY CLINTON: Now, with all due respect, Senator, you voted for regime change with respect to Libya. You joined the Senate in voting to get rid of Gaddafi, and you asked that there be a Security Council validation of that with a resolution.

All of these are very difficult issues. I know that; I've been dealing with them for a long time. And, of course, we have to continue to do what is necessary when someone, like Gaddafi, a despot with American blood on his hands, is overturned. But I'll tell you what would have happened. If we had not joined with our European partners and our Arab partners to assist the people in Libya, you would be looking at Syria. Now the Libyans are turning their attention to try to dislodge ISIS from its foothold and begin to try to move together to have a unified nation.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS: I was not the secretary of state.

AMY GOODMAN: That was Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders at the debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, last year. Andrew Bacevich, respond.

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, I think that she's putting a fairly optimistic take on the prognosis in Libya. And I think Senator Sanders's critique of her interventionism, her pension for interventionism, deserves a far more serious response than she offers. She tends to shrug off the Iraq vote. She tends to shrug off the Libya experience as, you know, "Well, we did our best, and so what?" And I think that my point here is not—

AMY GOODMAN: Isn't she just trying to get away from it?

ANDREW BACEVICH: —is not the partisan one—

AMY GOODMAN: Isn't she just trying to get away from it, because, I mean, that you could say that that's one of the key reasons that President Obama is president today? He opposed the Iraq War, and she voted for it. And now she's dealing with the same thing with Bernie Sanders, who continually raises that key issue, that she voted for war with Iraq.

ANDREW BACEVICH: Yes, but the point here really is one that needs to look beyond partisanship. That is to say, who gets the better in these debates? The real issue that, it seems to me, never gets fully addressed is this larger question of what the militarization of U.S. policy, in particular, in the Islamic world has yielded over a period of now several decades. The issue is not, specifically, what went right or wrong in Iraq, right or wrong in Libya. The issue really is, given the magnitude of the U.S. military involvement in the region, in one country after another, whether our purposes were supposedly to bring order, spread democracy, pacify, advance human rights, the total sum of our activity has produced next to nothing that is positive, has imposed great costs on ourselves and on many other nations and peoples, and shows no evidence of producing anything more positive tomorrow or the next year. So there is a need to take stock of U.S. military involvement in the region to recognize its failure, and therefore to consider alternatives. And it's my personal judgment that there are alternatives to the militarization of U.S. policy. And quite frankly, I'd like to hear Senator Sanders be the one to begin to articulate what those alternatives might be.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: And in your view, Andrew Bacevich, what are some of the alternatives to the militarized foreign policy, U.S. foreign policy, that we've seen so far?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, let me give you, very briefly, a three-point strategy. First of all, point number one of this strategy is self-protection. Earlier, we talked about whether or not ISIS poses a particular threat to the United States. The threat's minor. But we need to do a better job—certainly, we need to do a better job than we did on 9/11—at simply erecting barriers to keep the bad guys from getting at us. And that is primarily a function of domestic agencies—FBI, the Coast Guard, the TSA, border agencies. Keep the bad guys out.

Point number two in this strategy—and this alludes to my previous point about it is the nations in the region who are really affected by ISIS—point number two is to, as a diplomatic task, get those nations to recognize that they have a common interest in dealing with ISIS. Yes, they are divided among themselves on any variety—other variety of fronts—religious, sectarian, historical. But their common interest in dealing with ISIS is preeminent and ought to provide the basis for a collaboration againstISIS.

Point number three, again, the big question, the big issue, it seems to me—and I know that President Obama believes this—is the difficulty of some in the Islamic world of finding a path that will reconcile belief, faith, with secular modernity. Peaceful coexistence between the West and the Islamic world will require that reconciliation between faith and modernity occurring. But it has to occur on terms of the people within the region. So, point number three, really, of that strategy is to encourage that reconciliation; to demonstrate, through our own behavior, that faith and modernity need not be at odds; and to encourage exchanges—cultural, educational—between ourselves and, in particular, young people in the Islamic world, that will help demonstrate that we are not the enemy.

Now, that's a strategy that does not involve U.S. military power in any significant way. It's a strategy that would have to unfold over decades. But it is a preferable alternative to permanent war, and that's where we are now.

AMY GOODMAN: Andrew Bacevich, what is the media not asking? What is your critique of the media right now?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, my critique of the media is that they allow this preoccupation with what happened yesterday, the day before, to transcend or to remove any larger awareness of what the United States has attempted to do, has accomplished or not accomplished, and at what cost over a period of decades. I mean, for all practical purposes, the U.S.-Iraq War of 2003-2011 has already been forgotten, not to mention the U.S. war in Iraq of 1990-'91, not to mention U.S. involvement in the Iran-Iraq War of 1980 to 1988. If you—if one takes on board that entire experience, military—U.S. military experience in and around Iraq over a period of decades, it's hard for me to imagine that you can look at what's going on now and say, "Well, gosh, if we just defeat ISIS, everything is going to be—everything is going to be hunky-dory." The media is too focused on the immediate past and ignores the deeper past.

AMY GOODMAN: I want to go to your piece, "Has Trump Already Won?: He Has Already Changed the Republican Party and American Democracy Forever." But I want to start by playing two short clips. This is Trump this week responding to Anderson Cooper on CNN's question of whether Islam is at war with the West.

DONALD TRUMP: I think Islam hates us. There's something—there's something there that—there's a tremendous hatred there. There's a tremendous hatred. We have to get to the bottom of it.

AMY GOODMAN: And now I want to turn to Donald Trump at the Republican debate in Greenville, South Carolina, Trump denouncing the Iraq War, calling it a "big, fat mistake."

DONALD TRUMP: Obviously, the war in Iraq was a big, fat mistake. All right? Now, you can take it anywhere you want. And it took Jeb—it took Jeb Bush, if you remember, at the beginning of his announcement, when he announced for president, took him five days. He went back. It was a mistake, it wasn't a mistake. Took him five days before his people told him what to say. And he ultimately said it was a mistake. The war in Iraq, we spent $2 trillion, thousands of lives. We don't even have it. Iran is taking over Iraq, with the second-largest oil reserves in the world. Obviously, it was a mistake.

JOHN DICKERSON: So—

DONALD TRUMP: George Bush made a mistake. We can make mistakes, but that one was a beauty. We should have never been in Iraq. We have destabilized the Middle East.

AMY GOODMAN: So there was Donald Trump taking on Jeb Bush, George Bush's brother. He would then pull out of the race. And today, actually, Jeb Bush is meeting with Kasich, Rubio and Cruz, but not meeting with Trump, before the big debate tonight. But look at those two quotes, Andrew Bacevich, fitting in with saying Muslims should be banned from the U.S., saying Islam hates America, and then George Bush lied about the—lied us into the Iraq War.

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, the Iraq War was a big, fat mistake. I mean, Trump, in many respects, is a blowhard, but from time to time he actually says something that is true. What's not true is his characterization of Islam. It's not simply that it's not true; it's that it's utterly counterproductive. It cannot provide the basis for any sort of meaningful policy, unless somehow or other a president Trump would be interested in promoting some sort of Armageddon-like conflict between the West and Islam.

I mean, my—one of my points with regard to Trump is this. There are those who compare him to a fascist. I don't think he's a fascist, because however evil it may have been, fascism did imply some sort of a coherent ideology. Trump has no ideology. He shoots from the hip. He contradicts himself. He speaks in generalities. He has a remarkable aptitude, I think, for manipulating and exacerbating anger and alienation in a certain part of the American population. So he's not so much a fascist, I think, as he is a representative of a kind of a personality cult. And in a sense, that would make him that much more dangerous, were he ever to become president, because we actually don't know what he stands for, and therefore what he would do if in the position of commander-in-chief.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: Well, you've suggested that departing from U.S. foreign policy orthodoxy often has fatal consequences. And I want to ask about another point that Trump has made, and this on Russia. In an interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper in October, Trump was asked about NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden. Trump denounced Snowden and said he would get along very well with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

DONALD TRUMP: I think he's a total traitor. And I would deal with him harshly. And if I were president, Putin would give him over. I would get along with Putin. I've dealt with Russia. Putin hates—

ANDERSON COOPER: You think you'd get along with Putin?

DONALD TRUMP: I think I'd get along with him fine. I think he'd be absolutely fine.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: That was Trump speaking to CNN's Anderson Cooper in October, saying that he, Trump, would get along very well with Putin. In December, Trump defended Putin after the Russian president called Trump a, quote, "very colorful, talented person." Trump responded by saying it is, quote, "a great honor to be so nicely complimented." In a series of interviews, Trump disputed reports of the Kremlin's involvement in the killing of journalists, saying, quote, "Our country does plenty of killing also." Andrew Bacevich, your response?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, I mean, I think it's frankly a bit silly to talk about the relationship with the leader of Russia in terms of "getting along with." Putin is not interested in, quote-unquote, "getting along with" the United States. Putin is a—is a thug. But in his own way, he is a relatively serious statesman playing a game that is defined by power and interests. I think, in many respects, Putin's primary interest is trying to maintain his status within Russia at a time when the Russian economy is clearly having a very difficult time. So, a posture of blustering, of insisting upon the rest of the world giving respect to Russia, the respect that it deserves, plays well, I think, with his domestic constituents and helps to ease his domestic problems. But the notion that Putin wants to get along well with us, I think, is frankly absurd.

But what's also, of course, not to be admitted, I think, or acknowledged or accepted is that Russia actually represents a very limited threat to the United States of America. There are those on the right in the United States who somehow think that Putin's Russia can be equated to Stalin's Soviet Union, and therefore every time Putin exercises a modest amount of muscle, that somehow that ought to lead to a U.S. military response. I think that that also would be a reckless way to approach Russia.

AMY GOODMAN: We don't hear very much about nuclear weapons. Why do you think this is a key question that is being missed for all of these candidates to have to address, Professor Bacevich?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, it beats me. I mean, I am astonished that there has been so little attention given to the Obama administration's announced plans to modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal with smaller nuclear weapons, which, to some people, might sound reassuring. "Smaller" means, actually, more usable and, arguably, more likely to be used. The modernization program involves new ballistic missiles, a new manned bomber for the Air Force, new missile-launching submarines. This is a program—it's publicly announced—that probably will cost a trillion dollars or more between now and its projected completion, roughly around 2045, in time for the 100th anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Neither party, certainly none of the candidates, to my knowledge, have questioned whether this is going to be money well spent, why we need an expanded arsenal, how this plays with regard to the professions by, what, the last 10 presidents, all of whom have indicated that they would like to see nuclear weapons eliminated altogether. It's another blindspot, it seems to me, in our political discourse that is baffling.

NERMEEN SHAIKH: Well, another point that you raise that's missing from the debates is the fact, as you say, that U.S. forces are today active in 147 countries around the world. You ask why there are troops in so many countries, saying this question can't really be posed, because "[t]o answer it is to expose the real purpose of American globalism, which means, of course, that none of the candidates will touch it with a 10-foot pole." Could you tell us what the answer to that question is, why U.S. troops are stationed in 147 countries and what it says about the real purpose of American globalism?

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, if we compared why they're in country A versus country B, the immediate rationale is going to differ. But when we consider that profile, the global profile that you just referred to—and that's a global profile which has expanded in recent years but certainly has been enormous since the beginning of the Cold War, a military presence orders of magnitude greater than that of any other significant power on the face of the Earth—why are we doing that? Well, because people in Washington believe that military power, military presence, the projection of force, that these translate into influence that benefits the United States. They believe that that influence then translates into security for the United States of America. Many of them even believe that that translates into enhancing the well-being of the rest of the world. And I think that that's a—it's a notion implicit in U.S. national security strategy, therefore never examined, never questioned. And I think that posing those questions, it's past time, because there's plenty of evidence that the U.S. military presence may, in some places, contribute to stability, but in many other places it actually contributes to instability, at great cost to ourselves and others.

AMY GOODMAN: Also not mentioned at last night's debate was the fact that the U.S. just bombed Somalia, killed 150 people. We're told they believe that they're militants at a training camp. It looks like the Pentagon first appeared to have initially tried to cover up the fact that it was not just drones, but also manned attacks. This is a country we are not officially at war with, and this week we first killed 150 people, the U.S. military, and now, in the last hours, another 19.

ANDREW BACEVICH: Well, exactly. So this—we used to call it the war on terrorism; I'm not sure if that term is actually still in circulation. But this enterprise, this war, this series of campaigns, continues to evolve, continues to expand. The authority of the president to make war wherever he chooses to now seemingly—is now seemingly beyond any sort of question. The Constitution, in that regard, has simply been thrown out the window. And to circle back to the fact that we're in a political season, virtually none of this is discussed. Virtually none of this becomes a subject of the moderators at these interminable debates. It's simply taken for granted that we—that war has become a normal condition.

AMY GOODMAN: We have to leave it there. I want to thank you, Andrew Bacevich, for joining us, retired colonel, Vietnam War veteran. His recent piece for The Nation, "The Six Questions Missing from the 2016 Election Debates." His new book,America's War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History, will be published next month. He's professor emeritus of international relations and history at Boston University. Among his other books, Washington Rules: America's Path to Permanent War.

This is Democracy Now! 




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Thursday, March 03, 2016

The Confusion of the Amerikan Primaries -- Explained


THE ABSURD TIMES



Illustration: Hillary in whatever a meme is.


            There seems to be a great deal of interest overseas in our election this time as it is even stranger than usual.  This is an attempt to clear up some of the confusion for international audiences.



            The Democratic side seems strange because of how the delegates seem to stack up.  You only need one simple rule to tell how Bernie Sanders is doing against Hillary Clinton and that is to subtract about 400 delegates from what seems to be a large total.  The 400 are so-called "Super Delegates" who are establishment party members whose vote is really fungible as it could be changed at any time.  The rest are earned delegates as a result of primaries.  Hillary won a large number of delegates in South Carolina, which seems to make her popular, but it is worth considering that the Democratic Party has not carried that state in a general election for 40 or 50 years.  In short, they are meaningless so far as winning is concerned. 



            Sanders uses the term "Socialist" as in "Democratic Socialist" and in previous years this alone would be enough to defeat any attempt he made.  This year, however, almost all Americans are "fed up" with the system.  While an attempt is made in the corporate media to make this a black v. white issue as Hillary has great support from black voters in South Carolina, the reality is that with support from Dr. Cornell West and Director Spike Lee, Sanders has considerable black support.  If anything, the division is one of IQ rather than race. 



            Hillary's foreign policy is easily summed up as dealing with international issues through "Regime Change," including killing such leaders as Gaddafi, Saddam Hussein, Assad (if only we could), putting "YAZ" in control in Ukraine, and, of course, helping Israel liquidate anybody who bothers it.



            Sanders is relatively against intervention in other countries as there is considerable need for intervention here.  There is talk about his age, but then he is only 6 years older than Hillary.  To be more explicit, he was an undergraduate activist at the University of Chicago, put in jail one night for civil rights protest, while Hillary was a graduating senior in Park Ridge parading around as a Goldwater girl.  (At any rate, this is close enough for politics in the Chicago area.)  None of the "Super Tuesday states she won are likely to vote for any Democrat, not her especially.



            On the Republican side, Donald Trump is the clearest of them all on his positions, but the Republican candidates share them all.  One noticeable exception is that Trump says he will be neutral in the Palestinian issue and says that regime change is a foolish foreign policy.  He maintains that killing Saddam Hussein led to ISIS and also Iranian influence in Iraq and it is difficult to refute this.  Putin reputedly likes him.  This is said as an attack on Trump, but whoever is President will have to deal with Vladimir Putin anyway. 



            The Republican party is advertised as anti-government as this is what draws support to Trump as he can say that he is not funded by special interests.  Obviously, he is one of the 1%.  Many "Christians" here actually believe that "Israel" in the Bible  refers to the United States.  At this point, we see no purpose in discussing these people any further.



We do have another illustration for you.  The guy on the right is one of Hillary's favorites and the one on the left, who wants to be an Emperor is a close second:

           

Here is a discussion, but keep in mind that the New York Times is an establishment Newspaper:

The New York Times has published a major two-part exposé titled "The Libya Gamble" on how then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton pushed President Obama to begin bombing Libya five years ago this month. Today, Libya is a failed state and a haven for terrorists. How much should Hillary Clinton be blamed for the crisis? We speak to journalist Scott Shane of The New York Times.

TRANSCRIPT

This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Five years ago this month, the United States and allied nations began bombing Libya, striking forces loyal to Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. The Obama administration said the strikes were needed to enforce a no-fly zone and to protect Libyan protesters who took to the streets as part of the Arab Spring. Inside the Obama administration, there was a deep division over whether the U.S. should intervene militarily. One of the most hawkish members of Obama's Cabinet was Hillary Clinton, then the secretary of state.
The New York Times has just published two major pieces [part one, part two] looking at Clinton's role pushing for the bombing of Libya. The special report is titled "The Libya Gamble." In a moment, we'll be joined by Scott Shane, one of the report's co-authors, but first a video package produced by The New York Times.
JO BECKER: Hillary Clinton's role in the military intervention that ousted Muammar Gaddafi in Libya is getting new scrutiny as she runs for president. The U.S. relationship with Libya has long been complicated. Colonel Gaddafi, who ruled from 1969 until 2011, was an eccentric dictator linked to terrorism. Still, when he gave up his nuclear program a decade ago and provided information about al-Qaeda, he became an ally of sorts. In 2009, when Mrs. Clinton was secretary of state, she welcomed one of Colonel Gaddafi's sons to Washington.
SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: We deeply value the relationship between the United States and Libya.
JO BECKER: But two years later, when Colonel Gaddafi threatened to crush the Arab Spring protests in Libya, she helped persuade President Obama to join other countries in bombing his forces to prevent a feared massacre.
SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: This operation has already saved many lives, but the danger is far from over.
JO BECKER: The military campaign ended up ousting Colonel Gaddafi, and Secretary Clinton was welcomed to Libya on a victory tour. A few days later, Colonel Gaddafi was killed by opposition fighters.
SECRETARY OF STATE HILLARY CLINTON: We came, we saw, he died.
JO BECKER: But the new Western-backed government proved incapable of uniting Libya. And in the end, the strongman's death led to chaos. When four Americans were killed by terrorists in Benghazi in 2012, it revealed just how bad things had gotten. Colonel Gaddafi's huge arsenal of weapons has shown up in the hands of terrorists in places like Gaza, Syria, Nigeria and Mali. Hundreds of thousands of migrants have fled through Libya on boats. Many have drowned. And the power vacuum has allowedISIS to build its most dangerous outpost on the Libyan coast. Today, just 300 miles from Europe, Libya is a failed state. Meanwhile, back at home, Mrs. Clinton has struggled to defend the decision to intervene.
HILLARY CLINTON: But I'm not giving up on Libya, and I don't think anybody should. We've been at this a couple of years.
MARTHA RADDATZ: But were mistakes made?
HILLARY CLINTON: Well, there's always a retrospective to say what mistakes were made. But I know that we offered a lot of help, and I know it was difficult for the Libyans to accept help.
AMY GOODMAN: That video by The New York Times accompanies a major two-part series [part one, part two] on Hillary Clinton titled "The Libya Gamble," written by Jo Becker and Scott Shane. Scott Shane is joining us now from Baltimore. He's also author of a new book called Objective Troy: A Terrorist, a President, and the Rise of the Drone, about the first American deliberately killed in a drone strike, Anwar al-Awlaki. The book just won the 2016 Lionel Gelber Prize.
Scott Shane, welcome to Democracy Now! Let's start with this two-part series, "Clinton, 'Smart Power' and a Dictator's Fall." Talk about Hillary Clinton as secretary of state and how she led the charge, or what she advised President Obama in Libya.
SCOTT SHANE: Well, five years ago, there were—there was a question about what to do as Gaddafi's forces approached Benghazi. The Europeans and the Arab League were calling for action. No one really knew what the outcome would be, but there was certainly a very serious threat to a large number of civilians in Benghazi. But, you know, the U.S. was still involved in two big wars, and the sort of heavyweights in the Obama administration were against getting involved—Robert Gates, the defensive secretary; Joe Biden, the vice president; Tom Donilon, the national security adviser.
And Secretary Clinton had been meeting with representatives of Britain, France and the Arab countries. And she sort of essentially called in from Paris and then from Cairo, and she ended up tipping the balance and essentially convincing President Obama, who later described this as a 51-49 decision, to join the other countries in the coalition to bomb Gaddafi's forces.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Well, Hillary Clinton has argued, in her defense, that it's still too early to tell what the effects of the intervention have been, and that perhaps accounts for why she's pushing for more military involvement in Syria. But Obama, on the other hand, as you point out in your piece, says the Libya experience has made him question each military intervention by asking, "Should we intervene militarily? Do we have an answer for the day after?" So, Scott Shane, can you lay out what you explain happened in Libya the day after, as it were?
SCOTT SHANE: Well, you know, for a few months, it looked like things might go reasonably well. There was some attention to restoring Libya's oil industry. And the optimism was based in part on the idea that this is a relatively small country population-wise, about 6 million people. It did not have the Sunni-Shia split that you see in many Muslim countries, and it had plenty of money from oil to rebuild. So, briefly, there was this sort of moment of optimism. And Secretary Clinton made her visit. And they were—you know, her people were actually thinking this would be perhaps a centerpiece of her record as secretary of state.
But what happened was the militias that had participated in the fight against Gaddafi, you know, essentially aligned with different tribes in different cities, and it proved impossible for these mostly Western-educated—in some cases, somewhat detached—opposition leaders to pull the country together, and eventually it sort of dissolved into civil war.
AMY GOODMAN: You say—in that piece we just heard, the tape that caught Hillary Clinton saying, "We came, we saw, he died." Explain.
SCOTT SHANE: Well, you know, in some ways, I think she would see that as unfair. She was giving a series of TV interviews, and that was in a break between interviews. The reporter for the next take was just sitting down in the chair, and an aide handed her a Blackberry with the news that Gaddafi—you know, first reports that Gaddafi might be dead. And that was her sort of, I think she would say, you know, exaggerated, humorous reaction. But, you know—but it did capture, I think, the fact that she had become very involved in this effort that first—that sort of began as protecting civilians and sort of evolved into overthrowing Gaddafi. And she was eager to see an end to what had become a surprisingly drawn-out affair, given the fact that this very large alliance of NATO and Arab countries were on the rebels' side. So I think she was relieved and pleased that Gaddafi's rule was over and that he was no longer around to make trouble.
AMY GOODMAN: During the Democratic presidential debate in New Hampshire last year, ABC News host Martha Raddatz questioned Hillary Clinton about her support for the 2011 invasion of Libya, which toppled Muammar Gaddafi.
MARTHA RADDATZ: Secretary Clinton, I want to circle back to something that your opponents here have brought up. Libya is falling apart. The country is a haven for ISIS and jihadists, with an estimated 2,000 ISIS fighters there today. You advocated for that 2011 intervention and called it "smart power at its best." And yet, even President Obama said the U.S. should have done more to fill the leadership vacuum left behind. How much responsibility do you bear for the chaos that followed elections?
HILLARY CLINTON: Well, first, let's remember why we became part of a coalition to stop Gaddafi from committing massacres against his people. The United States was asked to support the Europeans and the Arab partners that we had. And we did a lot of due diligence about whether we should or not, and eventually, yes, I recommended, and the president decided, that we would support the action to protect civilians on the ground. And that led to the overthrow of Gaddafi.
I think that what Libya then did by having a full free election, which elected moderates, was an indication of their crying need and desire to get on the right path. Now, the whole region has been rendered unstable, in part because of the aftermath of the Arab Spring, in part because of the very effective outreach and propagandizing that ISIS and other terrorist groups do.
MARTHA RADDATZ: Senator Sanders?
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS: The truth is, it is relatively easy for a powerful nation like America to overthrow a dictator, but it is very hard to predict the unintended consequences and the turmoil and the instability that follows after you overthrow that dictator. So, I think Secretary Clinton and I have a fundamental disagreement: I'm not quite the fan of regime change that I believe she is.
AMY GOODMAN: "I'm not quite the fan of regime change that ... she is," says Bernie Sanders in that debate with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Scott Shane, from Iraq and her vote for the war with Iraq, which of course did lead to regime change, to Libya, talk about the goal of Hillary Clinton and whether that was even different from the goal of President Obama, who she does wrap herself around now in all of her presidential campaigning.
SCOTT SHANE: I think what we found is that there is a subtle but distinct difference between President Obama and Secretary Clinton on the question of sort of activism and interventionism abroad. And, you know, in a situation like Libya, there are no good choices. It's certainly conceivable that if she had tipped the other way, and the U.S. and the Europeans and others had not gotten involved, that perhaps Gaddafi would have slaughtered a whole lot of civilians, and we would be, you know, posing different questions to her today.
But, you know, what we found was that President Obama is, not surprisingly, very shaped by the Iraq experience, which he's had to cope with the still ongoing aftermath of the decision to invade in 2003 all these years later. She, of course, has been in government longer, and I think she—you know, her aides say that she was also influenced by genocide in Rwanda, which taught her the cost of inaction in a situation like that, and by the experience in the Balkans, which sort of cut both ways. But, you know, I think she drew the lesson that intervention could prevent even larger massacres and do some good, as imperfect as the outcome was there. So they kind of look back to these different historical experiences and draw different conclusions.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Well, you report in your piece in the Times that shortly after the air campaign began in 2011, there was the possibility of a 72-hour ceasefire, potentially leading to a negotiated exit for Gaddafi. Why was that offer not taken seriously by the American military?
SCOTT SHANE: Well, you know, there were—there was a whole array of attempts to come up with some sort of soft exit for Gaddafi. Perhaps he would stay in Libya, perhaps he would go elsewhere. But I think the bottom line was that the Americans and the Europeans and the other Arab—and the Arab countries that were involved in this, all basically felt that Gaddafi, who was basically a megalomaniac, who had been in office for 40 years and sort of saw him as the savior of his country, just would not, when push came to shove, be willing to cede power. And they felt that any kind of ceasefire, he would use just to kind of regroup his forces and extend the fighting. Whether that was true or not, you know, history will judge.
AMY GOODMAN: And the issue of this being a failed state right now and Hillary Clinton's responsibility here—of course, as is President Obama, but she was the secretary of state who was advising him, meeting with people on the ground, making her suggestions on pushing forward with war?
SCOTT SHANE: Yeah, I mean, you know, one reason we did that series is that it appears that intervention—when, how and whether to intervene in other countries, particularly Muslim countries—remains sort of a pressing question for American presidents. And since she's running for the presidency, this is, you know, perhaps a revealing case study of how she comes out in these situations.
But, you know, there are—there is no good example of intervention or non-intervention in these countries since the Arab Spring and before that. I mean, you have Iraq, where we spent years occupying, a very tragic outcome. You have Libya, where we intervened but did not occupy and pretty much, you know, stayed out of it afterwards—not a good outcome. And you have Syria, where we have really not intervened, have not occupied, and you've had this terrible civil war with huge casualties. So, you know, some people in Washington are questioning whether there is any right answer in these extremely complicated countries in the Middle East.
NERMEEN SHAIKH: Well, given the spread of ISIS in Libya, you report that some of Obama's top national security aides are now pushing for a second American military intervention in Libya.
SCOTT SHANE: Yeah, I mean, one of the ironies here is that, you know, you've almost come full circle, but instead of targeting Gaddafi and Gaddafi's forces, the U.S. is now targeting ISIS. And the—you know, in that debate, Martha Raddatz uses the number 2,000 ISIS fighters; now it's up to 5,000 or 6,000. You know, on the coast of Libya, they have formed the most important outpost for the Islamic State outside Syria and Iraq, and the Europeans and the Americans are very worried about it. So, there was actually an airstrike on an ISIS camp in western Libya, where there were Tunisians responsible for some attacks in Tunisia, and now they're looking at possible attacks on the major ISIS stronghold in Libya, which is in Sirte on the coast.
AMY GOODMAN: In your piece, you talk about the memo afterwards that highlights Hillary Rodham Clinton—HRC, as it's put—role, talking about her leadership, ownership, stewardship of this country's Libya policy from start to finish, with an eye to the presidential campaign. Can you talk about this, as you put it, this brag sheet?
SCOTT SHANE: Well, that memo was written in 2011, when Gaddafi had fallen. And, you know, it looked like—you know, they were holding this up as sort of an alternative to the George W. Bush invasion of Iraq, a coalition in which the U.S. was not even the leader and organizer, really, and it was a very broad coalition of nations that had intervened. They saw this as what she referred to as "smart power." And they really thought this might be something they would hold up as a very successful part of her record as she ran for president. As we've seen, that did not happen, and, you know, you don't hear them raise the subject of Libya on the campaign trail at all.
AMY GOODMAN: Scott Shane, we have to end the show, but we're going to do Part 2 of our conversation after the show about your new book, Objective Troy: A Terrorist, a President, and the Rise of the Drone. Scott Shane, national security reporter for The New York Times. And we'll link to this major exposé [part one, part two] you did on Hillary Clinton's role in "The Libya Gamble."
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