Expectations

Great Expectations?

Clearly, the American electorate has rejected the war in Iraq, corruption, and the relentless crusade (one of Bush’s favorite terms) against social programs. They did this the only way they could, by voting for the Democrats. But what is really going to happen? As Yogi Berra once said, “Predictions are hard and tricky, especially when the involve the future.”[1] I’ll take a shot at it anyway.

The first point is that it does look like Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House, putting her in line for the Presidency if anything happens to the Republican executives. This is a good sign, especially if we compare her to Dennis Hastert, but she is not likely to make any strong moves. She says impeachment is “off the table,” but it was also off the table when Nixon started his second term, and Clinton as well. That means nothing. Still, impeachment is unlikely.

There is no real unified Democratic party united by an ideology and this is good news, by comparison. The real similarity is that Democrats usually try to reflect the middle-class of their own constituencies, and different states and areas have different outlooks. Certainly, we do not expect the same views to be shared by, say a long-term Senator from Massachusetts and a newly elected gun-toter from Montana. There will be more diversity and less Bible thumping. Don’t expect an immediate withdrawal, but a movement towards one, and no increases. Stem-Cell research of some improved sort is likely.

It doesn’t matter whether Murtha becomes majority leader; it would indicate an interest on the part of the Democrats to end the war, but electing him could be used as an alternative to do anything to move in that direction. The best I can say about his opponent is that I haven’t heard much about him.[2]

A few positive things to look for include: no right-wing fanatics will get to be on the Supreme Court; in fact, the degeneration of our legal system will pretty much stop and stay where it is until we get a better President. No more attacks on the Bill of Rights will succeed, but it is by no means clear that we will get back the 1^st, 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th Amendments. (Maybe parts of them.) There may be some changes in wiretapping without a warrant (4^th). Who knows, maybe even habeas corpus will be restored?

Meanwhile, Bush has announced he wants to increase troop strength in Iraq by 20 to 30 thousand more. I doubt if there will be much support for that in congress.[3] In the Senate, Joe Biden is chair of Foreign Relations and he wants to divide the country into three parts.[4]

Bush has also announced that Viet Nam, our traditional Allies, support us against Korea. Of course, the statement he referred to was spoken behind closed doors in Vietnamese and no written record of it was issued. Nothing in English.[5]

Well, that’s it for awhile.

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[1] Trying to find sources for his quotes is as silly as trying to figure them out. I don’t know or care where or when he said it. So there.

[2] You can tell how bad my work habits have been lately as a result of intrusions. Murtha was defeated by Hoyer who has a bit of a reputation for consensus building and deal-making. Charlie Rangel was on Hoyer’s side. Republicans and FOX news say this mean she failed at her first attempt; Democrats say this shows her loyalty. Since Democrats say this, it has to be true. If they said she was strong-arming them, it would be false.

[3] Of course, a lot of the recently elected Democrats sound like Republicans, so no bets on this one.

[4] There is no support for this anywhere else in the world. Only Iran and Syria together can help with that situation now.

[5] That’s what I heard on the media, anyway.