*ZNet | Israel/Palestine*
*What Can Israel Achieve?*
*by Immanuel Wallerstein; Commentary No. 190, August 1, 2006; August
06, 2006*
The State of Israel was established in 1948. Ever since, there
has been continuous violence between Jews and Arabs in Israel,
and between Israel and its neighbors. Sometimes, the violence
was low-level and even latent. And every once in a while, the
violence escalated into open warfare, as now. Whenever full-
scale violence broke out, there was an immediate debate about
what started it, as though that mattered. We are now in the
midst of warfare between Israel and Palestine in Gaza and
between Israel and Lebanon. And the world is engaged in its
usual futile debate about how to reduce the open state of
warfare to low-level violence.
Every Israeli government has wished to create a situation in
which the world and Israel's neighbors recognize its existence
as a state and intergroup/interstate violence ceases. Israel has
never been able to achieve this. When the level of violence is
relatively low, the Israeli public is split about what strategy
to pursue. But when it escalates into warfare, the Jewish
Israelis and world Jewry tend to rally around the government.
In reality, Israel's basic strategy since 1948 has been to rely
on two things in the pursuit of its objectives: a strong
military, and strong outside Western support. So far this
strategy has worked in one sense: Israel still survives. The
question is how much longer this strategy will in fact continue
to work.
The source of outside support has shifted over time. We forget
completely that in 1948 the crucial military support for Israel
came from the Soviet Union and its eastern European satellites.
When the Soviet Union pulled back, it was France that came to
fill the role. France was engaged in a revolution in Algeria,
and it saw Israel as a crucial element in defeating the Algerian
national liberation movement. But when Algeria became
independent in 1962, France dropped Israel because it then
sought to maintain ties with a now- independent Algeria.
It is only after that moment that the United States moved into
its present total support of Israel. One major element in this
turn-around was the Israeli military victory in the Six Days War
in 1967. In this war, Israel conquered all the territories of
the old British Mandate of Palestine, as well as more. It proved
its ability to be a strong military presence in the region. It
transformed the attitude of world Jewry from one in which only
about 50% really approved of the creation of Israel into one
which had the support of the large majority of world Jewry, for
whom Israel had now become a source of pride. This is the moment
when the Holocaust became a major ideological justification for
Israel and its policies.
After 1967, the Israeli governments never felt they had to
negotiate anything with the Palestinians or with the Arab world.
They offered one-sided settlements but these were always on
Israeli terms. Israel wouldn't negotiate with Nasser. Then it
wouldn't negotiate with Arafat. And now it won't negotiate with
so-called terrorists. Instead, it has relied on successive shows
of military strength.
Israel is now engaged in the exact same catastrophic blunder,
from its own point of view, as George Bush's invasion of Iraq.
Bush thought that a show of military strength would establish
U.S. presence unquestionably in Iraq and intimidate the rest of
the world. Bush has discovered that Iraqi resistance was far
more formidable militarily than anticipated, that American
political allies in Iraq were far less reliable than he assumed
they would be, and that the U.S. public's support of the war was
far more fragile than he expected. The United States is heading
towards a humiliating withdrawal from Iraq.
Israel's current military campaign is a direct parallel of
Bush's invasion of Iraq. The Israeli generals are already noting
that Hezbollah's military is far more formidable than
anticipated, that U.S. allies in the region are already taking
wide distance from the United States and Israel (note the Iraqi
government's support of Lebanon and now that of the Saudi
government), and soon will discover that the Israeli public's
support is more fragile than expected. Already the Israeli
government is reluctant to send land troops into Lebanon,
largely because of what it thinks will be the reaction of its
own people inside Israel. Israel is heading towards a
humiliating truce arrangement.
What the Israeli governments do not realize is that neither
Hamas nor Hezbollah need Israel. It is Israel that needs them,
and needs them desperately. If Israel wants not to become a
Crusader state that is in the end extinguished, it is only Hamas
and Hezbollah that can guarantee the survival of Israel. It is
only when Israel is able to come to terms with them, as the
deeply-rooted spokespersons of Palestinian and Arab nationalism,
that Israel can live in peace.
Achieving a stable peace settlement will be extremely difficult.
But the pillars of Israel's present strategy - its own military
strength and the unconditional support of the United States -
constitute a very thin reed. Its military advantage is
diminishing and will diminish steadily in the years to come. And
in the post-Iraqi years, the United States may well drop Israel
in the same way that France did in the 1960s.
Israel's only real guarantee will be that of the Palestinians.
And to get this guarantee, Israel will need to rethink
fundamentally its strategy for survival.
[Copyright by Immanuel Wallerstein, distributed by Agence
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These commentaries, published twice monthly, are intended to be
reflections on the contemporary world scene, as seen from the
perspective not of the immediate headlines but of the long term.]
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